To the extent of the economic consequences of the Corona-crisis, the European Commission presents today its latest economic forecast. In the beginning of may, the Brussels authorities had said the worst recession in the history of the European Union.
Now she has adjusted the data according to the months of the corona-related restrictions. It’s also a question of how quickly the European economy can recover.
The estimates to diverge, and also in Germany. As Federal Economics Minister, Peter Altmaier (CDU), was recently optimistic that the downturn is over after the summer break. This year, the German economy in 2020 will shrink by six percent, then 2021, but again by more than five percent. Economic associations, however, are not sure. Pessimists expect a Bust and wave of redundancies in the autumn.
The EU-Commission in the spring forecast in may, assume that the economy is shrinking performance in the 19 countries in the Eurozone this year, an average of 7.7 percent. For the 27 countries of the EU as a Whole, they estimated the Minus 7.4 percent. For 2021, it was said at the time a significant, but not complete recovery before. It was assumed that next year in the Euro zone, 6.3% growth in the EU as a whole of 6.1 percent.
As in Germany, at EU-level, billion-dollar aid programs are intended to soften the consequences of the dramatic recession. The EU had proposed to Commission a programme for the economic recovery in the amount of 750 billion euros of which 500 billion euros in subsidies to EU member States. The reconstruction plan should be embedded in the next seven-year EU budget framework, for the around 1.1 trillion euros.
The details, however, are very controversial, and nothing is decided yet. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her EU colleagues at a summit on 17. and 18. July a compromise search. The EU Commission calls for pace, in order to get reconstruction aid quickly to the Start.