Bitcoin traded near $65,000 on Monday, July 27, 2026, after the United States and Iran paused military strikes for a second consecutive day, sending oil prices lower two days before the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise interest rates for the first time in three years.
The pause removed some of the energy-price pressure that had been pushing rate expectations higher through July. It did not remove the pressure already embedded in them. The Federal Open Market Committee has left its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at every meeting this year, and the live question on Wednesday is whether it tightens, not whether it eases.
What the strike pause did to oil, stocks and crypto
Brent crude fell more than 7% to around $87 a barrel as the pause held. NBC News put the decline above 8%, taking Brent below $88, with US crude down about 7% to roughly $82. That reversed the prior week, when Brent gained more than 9% and traded as high as $102.
The United States held fire from late Friday after 13 days of attacks, and Iran’s army said it had suspended its retaliatory operations. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, told reporters on Monday that Tehran has no negotiations with Washington, and that its talks with Oman concern passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin’s path through the session was uneven. It spiked to $65,600 at the Sunday futures open and settled near $65,200. Fortune recorded $65,358.92 at 7 a.m. Eastern time, up $901.27 from a day earlier. By 9:11 a.m. Eastern time it had eased to $64,974.08. At Fortune’s reading, bitcoin sat about $54,090 below its level a year earlier and roughly 48% below the record of $126,198.07 set on October 6, 2025.
US equities did not keep their opening bid. The S&P 500 closed the afternoon down 0.3% and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average held a gain of about 100 points, according to NBC News. Crypto’s advance was not matched across risk assets.
Why Wednesday is a hike debate
Traders cut the probability of a July increase after the strikes stopped. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the odds of a move on Wednesday at 30.5%, down from 37.4% at Friday’s close.
The committee’s June minutes show why the question is open at all. Fed staff estimated that total inflation on the personal consumption expenditures measure rose to 4.1% in May, with core at 3.4%. Members voted 12–0 to hold, dropped statement language that had suggested an easing bias, and a few participants said there was a case for raising the range even as they backed a hold.
June’s consumer price data pulled the other way. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the index fell 0.4% for the month and rose 3.5% over 12 months, down from 4.2% in May, with energy down 5.7% on the month. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh pushed back on reading that as resolved, saying of the mission-accomplished view, “That is not my view.”
Ether’s lead depends on the window
Ether outperformed bitcoin on Monday, rising to about $1,963, its highest level since early June and within reach of $2,000. Over the past month ether has advanced roughly 24% against bitcoin’s 8%, according to CoinDesk data.
Fund flows point the same way over that stretch. Between July 20 and July 24, US spot ether ETFs took in $103.90 million against $33.79 million for spot bitcoin funds, with BlackRock’s IBIT shedding $95.5 million. Bitcoin funds have drawn $51.63 billion since launch and hold about $78.82 billion, after roughly $8 billion left over eight weeks earlier in the summer.
The longer record is less flattering. CryptoQuant reported last week that the ETH/BTC ratio had fallen to 0.028, its lowest since August 2025, after nearly a year of ether trailing bitcoin. Giottus chief executive Vikram Subburaj put bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value at 58.6%, which he read as evidence that a broad rotation into altcoins has not arrived.
Dates that matter this week
The FOMC releases its statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, July 29, followed by Warsh’s press conference. This meeting carries no updated economic projections.
On Thursday the Commerce Department publishes its first estimate of second-quarter GDP alongside June personal income and spending, which include the PCE price index the Fed watches most closely. The next consumer price report is scheduled for August 12.
Two questions stay open: whether the pause becomes a durable settlement, which Baghaei’s comments give no sign of yet, and whether the rate pressure built up during the oil surge unwinds.
