Polymarket User Loses $1.7 Million

Prediction markets like Polymarket are an often overlooked part of the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry, where success is never guaranteed.

One person lost over $1.7 million by placing the wrong bets [at the wrong time]. At the same time, one of the users made a profit of $116,858.

Polymarket is a platform where users make money on predictions. For example, the expectation is that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will rise due to its acceptance as a spot asset. 

How much do people make on Polymarket?

In the “Profit” category there are people who have received more than other platform users. In the first place, there is a trader with the nickname Catoo. 

The trader made a monthly profit of $116,858. There are currently four open positions, the first of which is a $10,578.91 bet on the possibility of a “Fed rate cut by March 20“. However, the current loss stands at $1,386.91, as most users believe it won’t happen. The Federal Reserve is currently in a very tight spot regarding interest rates, yet it can’t delay cutting rates forever.

The users make bets with the highest profit. Source: Polymarket

So far, the highest profit is made by a procrastinator who wonders whether the price of BTC will rise to $50,000 by the end of January. The user thinks it won’t. This answer earned him $480.77. 

Perhaps Catoo managed to capitalize on the expectation of the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by Jan. 15. It can be seen that the user bet heavily on a positive answer to the tune of $12,503.71. 

Bets made by user catoo. Source: Polymarket

Polymarket’s reversed rating

When betting on Polymarket, it is worth remembering that not everyone is so lucky. For example, look at the user with the nickname UMA is a Global Terror Network. This player is in first place by the volume of his bets with open positions on 1,543 markets.

At the same time, the losses amounted to about $1.7 million. The user lost the most when betting on whether Donald Trump will win the Republican presidential election this year. The player lost over $69,000 on this bet. That is a negative yield of 87.73%.

Contrary to the highest profit earner, this particular trader successfully sided with the outcome of the bet on the Fed meeting on Mar. 20, believing the answer to be “no”. This strategic move resulted in a profit of $1,314, although that doesn’t offset the accumulated losses to date.

The player is betting that UMA is a Global Terror Network. Source: Polymarket

Polymarket is becoming increasingly popular in the crypto community. According to a report from Dune, the monthly volume on the platform skyrocketed to $51 million in early January. This became an all-time record. In December, the figure was just over $6 million.

Volume growth on Polymarket. Source: Dune

It’s crucial to note that the outcomes of other players do not guarantee future results. Additionally, Polymarket is attracting increasing attention from regulatory authorities.

In December 2023, Taiwan began investigations into the platform’s activities. Also, officially, users from the US cannot use Polymarket due to the requirements of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.