Polymarket Traders See 77% Chance of Spot Solana ETF Approval This Year

Traders on popular prediction market Polymarket are weighing in a 77% chance of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved this year, up from around 59% at the beginning of the year when trading started on such a prediction.

A spot Solana exchange-traded fund is now seen as a highly likely possibility over an upcoming leadership change in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which during the Biden administration was seen as hostile toward the cryptocurrency space and accused of regulation by enforcement actions.

Under the coming Trump administration, who campaigned on a pro-crypto stance, the SEC is likely to have a fovrable attitude toward the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with the coming administration reportedly planning to declare crypto a national priority.

As a result, Polymarket traders are weighing a 77% change a Solana ETF is approved this year, although the market has so far seen thin trading volume. A much more liquid market points to a 54% chance such an ETF would be approved by July 31.

Despite the favorable odds for the potential approval of a spot Solana ETF, prediction markets traders are only pointing to a 21% chance a US national Solana reserve is set to be approved this year.

While speculation has suggested Solana could be included in a potential strategic cryptocurrency reserve, President-elect Donald Trump has only pointed to the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve during his campaign.

Spot Solana ETF Filing Deadlines Approach

Several companies have filed applications to list spot Solana ETFs in the U.S., including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares. The SEC’s deadline for a decision on Grayscale’s SOL ETF filing is on January 23, while its deadline for filings from other asset managers falls on January 25.

The SEC can, however, delay its decision on these filings. If it is to approve such an ETF, it’s likely it could approve several funds at the same time, as it did with spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. Its second deadline to make a decision if it chooses to delay one this month would fall on March 11.

While a spot SOL ETF isn’t yet publicly available, some firms now have started investing in Solana, with Sol Strategies having recently boosted its SOL holdings.