MicroStrategy Could Enter Nasdaq 100 As MSTR Momentum Accelerates

Analysts at Bernstein predict that MicroStrategy’s momentum will continue, driven by its potential inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index this month and the increased crypto focus under the incoming Trump administration.

On Tuesday, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart suggested that MicroStrategy could join the Nasdaq 100 on December 23, with an announcement expected this Friday. This inclusion is projected to trigger at least $2.1 billion in net share purchases by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), representing approximately 20% of the stock’s daily trading volume. 

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Fellow Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that Moderna might be replaced in the index, with MicroStrategy likely to hold a 0.47% weighting.

Here We Go

According to Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, MicroStrategy’s inclusion in major ETFs like QQQ, the fifth-largest ETF, would result in one-time buying activity as well as ongoing participation through future fund inflows. They also highlighted MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, with the company adding $16 billion in Bitcoin over the past 40 days, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to $40 billion. The firm’s stock currently trades at a 147% premium to its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).

While some investors may question the premium valuation and reliance on equity and debt issuance for Bitcoin purchases, Bernstein believes this strategy can persist. The company has so far used $15 billion of its planned $42 billion debt and equity raise for its BTC acquisitions, buying the crypto asset in the $95,000 to $100,000 range. 

The analysts noted that as MicroStrategy accumulates more Bitcoin, its valuation premium tends to stabilize due to the increasing denominator of Bitcoin holdings. They estimate that with 18% leverage (convertible debt to Bitcoin NAV), the company has way more room to issue more debt and tap its equity at-the-market (ATM) program.

MicroStrategy in the S&P 500?

Beyond the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, Bernstein believes that MicroStrategy will gain further visibility and recognition, so much so that it could end up being included in the S&P 500 by 2025. 

Although the company’s software business lacks profitability (pretty much all they do is buy Bitcoin and hold), which complicates S&P 500 eligibility, upcoming changes to accounting rules for Bitcoin valuations could improve its chances. Therefore, starting in 2025, MicroStrategy may recognize unrealized gains on its Bitcoin holdings.

MicroStrategy shares closed at $411 on Wednesday, up 9.03% for the day and over 586% year-to-date, according to data from Yahoo Finance. 

The analysts also expect a more supportive environment under the “Trump 2.0” administration, with plans to nominate a crypto-friendly SEC Chair and appoint an AI and Crypto Czar. Bernstein rated MicroStrategy as “outperform” with a price target of $600, citing favorable market conditions as a reasonable entry point for investors.