Bitcoin Price Target of $100K Faces Slim Odds: Deribit

Data from Deribit, a major cryptocurrency options exchange, suggests a limited chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024, with the probability estimated at only 9.58%.

This forecast comes amid relatively stable implied volatility, indicating that substantial price changes are not expected in the short term.

Stable Implied Volatility in Bitcoin Options

The Deribit Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) measures anticipated price fluctuations over 30 days and has stayed within 50% to 60% for several months.

The low implied volatility suggests traders are not expecting major price swings in the future. Comparatively, implied volatility had spiked to 85% in March 2024.

Options allow buyers to transact assets at set prices by specific dates. In Bitcoin options, a call option represents a bullish approach, granting the right to buy at a predetermined price, while a put option allows traders to manage downside risk.

The probability of BTC reaching $100K relies on volatility models like Black-Scholes, which use inputs such as current market price, strike price, time to expiration, and the risk-free rate. With the current 50% -60 % volatility range, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 remains constrained.

While the chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 is low, a 22% probability exists for a significant price move—either up or down—by December, suggesting a potential increase to around $80,000.

Bitwise’s head of alpha strategies, Jeff Park, noted a possible surge to $92,000 if former President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election. “This projection is based on an analysis of Bitcoin’s price correlation with Trump’s odds on Polymarket,” Park explained.

Charting $BTC price against Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 reveals some wild swings—particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000

Take that as you will pic.twitter.com/OGy8M3Vju1

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) October 22, 2024

Record-Breaking Open Interest in Bitcoin Futures

As of Oct. 21, open interest in BTC futures hit an all-time high of $40.5 billion, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) capturing the largest share at 30.7%, followed by Binance at 20.4% and Bybit at 15%.

Open interest, indicating the total value of active futures contracts, is a key measure of investor engagement. Rising open interest often signals increased leverage in the market, leading to significant volatility. Periods of high open interest can amplify price movements, especially if the market shifts.