Bitcoin is Outperforming the S&P 500 Even As Trump Tariffs Are Destroying Global Markets: Analyst

Despite shedding nearly a third of its value from recent highs, it looks like Bitcoin (BTC) is still outperforming traditional markets, like the S&P 500, when adjusted for risk. And that’s a fact that’s reigniting old debates about whether BTC really is a systemic hedge or just a volatile sideshow.

Former Bloomberg’s market strategist Jamie Coutts states that BTC has been resilient as the global volatility takes off, much of it sparked by Trump’s latest round of trade tariffs.

Even while operating at more than double the S&P’s volatility, BTC’s drawdowns have been only slightly worse—a trend that’s been in place since at least 2022.

How Bitcoin Holds Up

Coutts argues that Bitcoin’s strength lies not in raw price gains but in how it holds up when adjusted for downside risk.

His analysis is based on Bitcoin’s Sortino ratio, which is a measure of risk-adjusted return, showing BTC outperforming not just stocks but also bonds and gold across multiple market cycles.

“What is happening right now is epic. Things are breaking,” Coutts wrote on April 9, stating that Bitcoin’s structure, like fixed supply and decentralized issuance, may soon push nation-states to view it as a credible “global settlement layer” as trust in fiat systems continues to erode, he adds.

“Perhaps it’s not just BTC’s strength, but a reflection of the increasing fragility of the fiat system and its asset markets – complex systems inherently trend toward entropy/chaos. Bitcoin is mirroring this unraveling.”

In earlier modelling, Coutts showed that even a 1% BTC allocation in a traditional 60/40 portfolio (bonds and equities) from 2015 to 2022 would have boosted overall returns. That said, he’s not screaming “YOLO your pension.” He acknowledges the risks and recommends smaller allocations, rebalanced less frequently.

BTC is currently trading above $82,800, a 4.4% increase from the last 24 hours, a sign of relief after several weeks of massive turbulence.

At the time of writing, the crypto market capitalization is sitting at $2.7T, a 2.1% increase in the last 24 hours. This surge comes as global markets have a brief rest after US President Donald Trump announced a 90 days paused to international trade tariffs.

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